CSGO Case Opening Odds Explained: Weapon Case Drop Rules

Many players wonder whether there is a secret to case opening. In fact, CSGO case opening is governed by strict probability mechanics.

Base Drop Probabilities

In standard weapon cases: Mil-Spec approximately 79.92%, Restricted approximately 15.98%, Classified approximately 3.2%, Covert approximately 0.64%, and Rare Special (knives/gloves) approximately 0.26%.

Float Value Mechanics

Each skin receives a randomly assigned float value between 0 and 1 when it drops, determining its appearance: 0-0.07 Factory New, 0.07-0.15 Minimal Wear, 0.15-0.38 Field-Tested, 0.38-0.45 Well-Worn, 0.45-1.0 Battle-Scarred.

StatTrak Technology

Some skins come in StatTrak counter versions that record kills; their drop rate is roughly one-tenth of the same tier.

With these mechanics in mind, you can experience the probability distribution firsthand in the case simulator and treat opening results rationally.